Following the devastation of Hurricane Ida, the tri-state area can expect to see heavy rain and thunderstorms— and possible tornadoes and flash floods later mid-evening through around three in the morning.
Although the weather models are frequently updating, the areas recently forecast to be most affected by inclement weather are north and west of New York City—in the Hudson Valley, portions of the Catskills, northwestern New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania.
A New York Metro Weather storm model shows that the storm will blow in from the west, touching down in New Jersey by around 10 p.m. and reaching the city around midnight.
As a pre-emptive measure, Notify NYC sent out a text message encouraging New Yorkers “to prepare for rain & thunderstorms this evening into the overnight,” and to remind those traveling to stay cautious.
While not nearly as powerful as Ida, certified broadcast meteorologist Garrett Argianas told WNYC/Gothamist that some parts of the city should prepare to see two inches of rain.
“In a normal situation, if we hadn’t had [hurricane] Henri followed by [hurricane] Ida and a very wet ground, two inches of rain in a short amount of time would still likely lead to some localized flood[ing],” Argianas said, noting that the amount could vary across the city. “But because there is so much moisture on the ground, that heightens flooding concerns in this particular situation.”
“In this case though, it’s not interacting with any tropical systems, so the rainfall doesn’t have the ability to be as enhanced,” he added.
A regional National Weather Service Twitter account also noted that while two inches of rain isn’t usually unnerving, people should be on guard, considering that some areas are “receiving up to 600% of normal rainfall this past week.”
On average, the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30th, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an indication that more storms are expected to land in the coming weeks.
And because the ground is still relatively wet from recent rainfalls, Argianas said people should be on the lookout for flash floods but they shouldn’t be frightened.
“That’s where water is rapidly rising in some areas and that’s a dangerous situation,” he said. “The good thing now is that Emergency Alert Systems trigger with flash flood warnings, so when you hear that alarm go off be ready to react right away.”